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MARKET RESEARCH > AMRON-SARFIN REPORTS


Quarterly Report on housing loans and real estate transaction prices (AMRON-SARFiN Report) became a commonly known source of basic information on housing market and mortgage loans market. Reports include characteristics of last quarter’s mortgage and housing market in long-term perspective and presents the trends analyses in nationwide perspective.

Report is published by Polish Banks Association and developed by AMRON Centre basing on data from AMRON and SARFiN Systems, as well as data published by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, Central Statistical Office and National Bank of Poland.

English version of the AMRON-SARFiN Report is chargeable. In purpose to order it please fill in the order form and sent it to AMRON Centre (e-mail: raport@amron.pl or info@amron.pl, fax: +48 22 417 32 30).

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After the significant slow-down from last three months, Q3 2020 brought an apparent change on mortgage loans market. Lending conditions have been eased as a consequence of more optimistic assessment of the situation on housing market and better prospects for economic development. Observed growth in housing demand was not without meaning, as well as increasing competitive constraint. Last three months portend returning of the increase trend both in terms of number and value of newly granted mortgage loans.

Dynamic revival was also recorded on the new investments market – one quarter period turned out to be too short for significant and sustainable changes in trends on the housing market. After the short break caused by official restrictions, Poles continued housing purchases. Developers also remained optimistic – after weaker performance in second quarter, the third quarter turned out to be surprisingly good both in terms of new construction permits and started investments.

In Q2, 2020 the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the housing market was clearly visible. In terms of mortgage lending, decreases at the level of 20% compared to the previous quarter were recorded, both in number and value of new loans. On the housing market, number on new transactions on the primary market dropped by 64%, but transaction prices did not diminish. On the contrary, most of the biggest housing markets witnessed quarterly increases of a few percent. At the same time, changes on the private rent market were rather symbolic. "Preliminary results for July confirm growing trend both in mortgage lending and in developers’ investments, which justifies a prudent forecast of total results for the end of the year 2020. This year will definitively be underperforming comparing to the record-breaking year 2019, but the drop in new mortgage lending value may account for 12% up to 15% compared to the results recorded last year." – concluded Jacek Furga, PhD.

Despite the expected slow-down on the mortgage market in March this year due to COVID-19 epidemics and its possible impact on mortgage lending, first quarter was characterised by intensive grows. Recorded scale of mortgage market performance was higher not only than it was last quarter, but also compared to the same period last year. Mortgage loans availability remained at a high level, as well as transaction prices on housing market. As for the end of March, increases were observed on all monitored markets. In most of surveyed cities, rent rates of flats also raised. "It is far too soon to predict the impact of the epidemics on Polish housing market. The only thing we may be certain about is the fact that the scale of the turmoil not only on housing market, but in the whole economy, will significantly depend on the time the pandemics lasts" – commented Jacek Furga, PhD.

During the whole year 2019, 225 073 new housing loans of a total value of PLN 62.629 billion were granted in Poland, which was more respectively by almost 6% and over 16% in comparison to the results recorded in 2018. This meant that the lending result in 2019 in terms of volume was the best since 2010, while in terms of value it was the best result in history.
In 2019, the Polish housing market reached a new record – 207 224 dwellings were completed, i.e. by 11.91% more than a year ago. It was the best result since 1989. At the same time, construction of 237 281 dwellings was started (by 6.93% more compared to the previous year) and 268 483 construction permits were issued (more by 4.44%). And all this despite the same barriers as last year - a systematic and dynamic increase in building plots prices and construction costs, in terms of costs of both labour and building materials.

In Q3, 2019 the forecasted levels of mortgage lending results were once again exceeded, not only in terms of higher value of new loans comparing to the previous quarter, but also in greater number of newly granted mortgage loans. After nine months of the year, value of all loans granted for purchase of flats and houses reached the level of 87% of the value recorded in the whole previous year and therefore it seems very probable that the year 2019 will be record-breaking with respect to mortgage lending value.
Quarterly increases were also observed in housing sector performance – there were noted more completed units, more started constructions and only slightly less new construction permits issued. Transaction prices on main housing markets increased again, as well as rent rates in private rent sector. Results of three quarters allow to predict that the current year will be record-breaking also for developers sector.

Results of banks’ lending activity in Q2 2019 were the highest in 42 quarters. The value of new loans amounted to PLN 16.5 billion and reached the level of Q3 2008 - the last quarter before the subprime crisis reached Poland! Number of loans granted was also record-breaking – 59 thousand, which was the highest in 31 quarters. But in Q3 2011, total value of new loans was by 22% lower and amounted to PLN 12.77 billion. This shows how much the average value of housing loan increased over those 8 years.
Construction market also surprised. Increase in number of construction permits issued in Q2 2019 amounted to almost 25% comparing to the previous quarter and it was the best result since the beginning of statistics recorded by GUS. Housing prices also continued to increase - in Q2 2019, an average transaction price of 1 sq.m. of floor area was higher than the value recorded in the previous quarter in all analysed locations.

In Q1 2019, over 50 thousand of housing loans were granted for a total value exceeding PLN 13.5 billion. This result was only slightly weaker than the result recorded last quarter. Comparing to Q1 of the previous year, volume of new loans was smaller by 4.5 thousand, but the total value was higher by nearly PLN 700 million. The average value of newly granted loans has increased again – the analysed quarter is the following period, when this tendency was clearly visible.
On housing market, the upward trend in prices has continued, however the growth rate has slowed down. In the first quarter this year, the average transaction price of 1 square meter of a housing unit in Katowice agglomeration decreased and in Gdansk it practically didn’t change. However, compared to analogous quarter of 2018, the average transaction prices increased in all analysed locations – growths ranged from 5% to 10%. The growth rate of rent rates decreased as well.

Most observers and analysts were surprised by the results on the housing and loan market in 2018. Everyone was counting on the continuation of positive trends, but the results at the level of those from the period before the last crisis began to raise concerns about the near future of the housing market, and in particular the risk of collapse of the transaction prices of dwellings.
In 2018, as in previous years, the situation on real estate and housing loans markets resulted by the good economic situation in Polish economy. At the same time, another record-breaking results on the housing market were recorded. 184 783 dwellings were completed, the construction of 221 907 dwellings were started and permits for 257 072 apartments were issued. Even in 2007-2008, no such good results were obtained. All this despite the occurrence of the same barriers as the previous year


The average value of a housing loan has been systematically increasing and in Q3 2018 it exceeded PLN 260 thousand. On one hand, good macroeconomic condition in Polish economy and rising wages were conducive to higher loans amounts, but on the other hand this phenomenon has been forced by constant increase in housing prices and growing demand for larger floor area of dwellings. However, increases in housing prices were forced by fast-increasing prices of building materials and construction plots and, above all, higher labour costs in the construction sector.
The rate of prices increase was high especially in the last year. Comparing to Q3 2017, in all analysed locations an increase in the average transaction price of 1 sq.m. of floor area was noted - from almost 13% in Gdansk, through 9% in Katowice agglomeration, to 6% in Wroclaw.

In Q2 2018, the number of newly granted housing loans was lower by 2.67% in comparison to the previous quarter, but still it remained at a very high level. In analysed period, banks in Poland granted 53 686 new mortgage loans. Total value of loan agreements concluded in the period from April to June increased by 6.40% in relation to Q1 this year, which resulted in the best result from 2010 - PLN 13.741 billion.
High demand on the residential real estate market and the growing costs of construction work and building materials led to an increase in transaction prices in the largest Polish cities. The average rent rate also increased. In the period from April to June this year, only in Poznan the average rent rate for a dwelling remained at the same level as in the previous quarter.

In first quarter of 2018 the highest lending activity since Q3 2011 with the number of over 55 thousand of new housing loans for the total amount of almost PLN 13 billion was observed, which meant an increase in relation to the previous quarter by 23.27% and 18.19% respectively. Also, the developers’ sector did not slow down. In comparison to the same period last year - the number of construction permits issued was higher by 10.84%, the number of constructions started - by 8.53%, and the number of dwellings completed - by 10.65%.

Year 2017 turned out to be a record-breaking both on the housing market,
as well as mortgage loans market. During that period banks granted over
190 thousand housing loans for a total amount of PLN 44 billion, which meant
the best result of the banking sector for six years. It was remarkably successful
year of dwellings sales by developers, too. The number of new building permits
and started investments guarantees an interesting housing offer in 2018.

The housing market has been recording systematic and sustainable growth for the last few years. Buying a dwelling as a capital investment appears now to be the safest form of investing money. It is affected by low interest rates and growing uncertainty and unpredictability of government and parliamentary activities in economic regulations, which have been exemplified by changes in rules of trade in land properties and changes in rules of wind farms construction and taxation.

The housing market has been recording systematic and sustainable growth for the last few years and it is confirmed by the results of the second quarter of 2017. While interest rates are low, many people consider buying a dwelling as a capital investment, which brings measurable profits in a long term. On the other hand, there is also a large group of buyers who change their "first dwelling" purchased between 2005-2008 during property boom to larger one in order to improve their current housing conditions.

Number of housing loans granted in Q1 2017 exceeded 50 thousand, which meant an increase in lending activity by almost 20% in comparison to the previous quarter – such increase has not been observed on Polish market since mortgage boom in 2006 – 2008 and the following period of market reaction to subprime mortgage crisis in 2010.

In the current edition of the Report we present the results of fourth quarter and the whole 2016 with reference to the results from several previous quarters and data recorded in 2015. In 2016, there were no major changes recorded on the housing market in Poland. Sale of dwellings, especially on primary market, remained at a high level and in the largest Polish cities prices confirmed clearly a slight upward trend ongoing since 2013. Purchasers withdrew their savings from the financial market and invested in dwellings for rent and therefore a significant increase in share of cash transactions on housing market was noted. This resulted in high developers’ sales results, encouraging them to start new investments.

Results of banks’ lending activity in Q3 2016 confirmed opinion presented in previous editions of the Report that race of potential borrowers to benefit from funds of the ‘Flat for Youth’ Programme was the basic reason for the high lending results in the first two quarters of this year. When subsidies expired, the highest decline in number of loans (quarter to quarter) over last 5 years was observed. Number of new loans granted in Q3 2016 declined by 13.20% in comparison to previous quarter, while value of newly granted loans diminished by 8.78%. Despite that the overall results of first three quarters of 2016 were slightly better than the results of the same period last year and therefore the repetition of last year’s lending results is likely to be expected.


The end of ‘Flat for Youth’ Programme, which is approaching very fast, together with seasonality effect typical for Polish residential market, led to an increase in banks’ lending activity in Q2 2016. During this period, banks granted more than 49 thousand new housing loans for a total amount of PLN 10.6 billion, which was more by respectively 9.80% and 12.45% comparing to the previous quarter. Loan portfolio quality remains at the high level. The high demand on real estate market in Q2 2016 improved developers’ sales results and caused a slight increase in transaction prices in the largest Polish cities.

Results of Q1 2016 turned out to be significantly lower than the results of Q4 2015. Despite the high interest in ‘Flat for Youth’ Programme, a decrease both in number (by 8.15%) and value of new loans (by 10.85%) was recorded. at the same time, number of active loan agreements as for the end of Q1 2016 for the first time ever exceeded the level of 2 million. However, further increase in share of Warsaw market in total structure of new housing loans to a record level of 40.98% noted at the end of March is alarming - it means that almost every second housing loan was granted in the capital city.

Last year banks' lending activity was the best since 2012, what was caused by very good results of Q4 2015. Both, the number (181 thousand), and the value (PLN 39.3 billion) of newly granted loans in 2015 were similar to results of crisis 2009 (respectively 189 thousand of loans for a total amount of PLN 38.7 billion). We managed to return to the defined several years ago by the Polish Banks Association the organic ability of Polish market to generate an annual value of housing loans at level of PLN 38-40 billion with the volume of 180-190 thousand.

AMRON-SARFiN Report No. 3/2015 In 2009 AMRON Centre started publishing the complex AMRON-SARFiN Report on housing loans and real estate transaction prices. By publishing the Report, most of all we intended to provide all real estate market participants with interesting and unique information on housing market and mortgage loans. This initiative succeeded - after six years, AMRON-SARFiN Report is a must-read not only for journalist, bankers, developers, property valuators or parliamentarians and central administration’s specialists, but also for those, who intend to sell or buy a dwelling.
This time exlusively English version of Report's jubilee edition is free of charge - download in by clicking the Report's cover on the left.



Second quarter of this year brought an extraordinary increase in number and value of new housing loans, which fortunately stopped downward trend in this segment observed for some time. The number and value of housing loans granted by Polish banks increased both on a quarterly and annual basis. In scope of interest rates and housing prices in the biggest agglomerations, there were no significant changes recorded.


First quarter of 2015 did not bring the mortgage lending revival that has been hoped for some time, however the final results turned out to be slightly better than in analogic period of previous year. Volume and value of new mortgage loans portfolio was comparable to volume and value of loans granted in last quarter of 2014, despite lowered margins and constantly diminishing interests rates.



The results of the last quarter of 2014 strengthened the downward trend observed since mid-2011, both in terms of the number of new loans, as well as their total value. Thus, as predicted by AMRON Centre – 2014 was the weakest year for the mortgage industry since 2005. Both the number (174 thousand) of granted loans in 2014, as well as their value (PLN 36.8 billion) were lower even than those obtained in the crisis year 2009 (189 thousand for a total amount of PLN 39 billion).



The analysis of banks’ lending activity in Q3 2014 shows that the summer months have brought a decrease in both number and value of new granted loans. In comparison to Q2 2014, the value of new loans was lower by 3.61% and amounted to PLN 9.232 billion. Polish banks granted 43 653 new mortgage loans, which was 4.06% less than in the previous quarter. Lending activity was also lower comparing to the same period last year.



Unlike results of Q1 and Q2 2013, which were not congruent with the model of seasonal cyclicity, the numbers noted in Q2 2014 related to the results carried out by banking sector in the previous three quarters confirmed seasonal cyclicity of the phenomena occurring both on housing loans and – what is more obvious – also housing market.



In Q1 2014, the decrease of both volume of newly granted loans (41 942, i.e. -7.65%) and total value of new housing loans (PLN 8 854 Mio, i.e. -9.35%) was noted. Value of the average housing loan granted in Q1 2014 amounted to PLN 206 thousand, i.e. PLN 3 075 (1.47%) less than the average value of a loan granted in the last quarter of previous year.



It was the weakest year for mortgage business since 2005. Both volume of loans granted in 2013 (176 thousand) and its value (PLN 36.5 billion) were lower than the volume and value of loans granted in the crisis year 2009. Neither the unusually low interest rates, nor attractive prices, which seemed to reach its minimal levels in most of locations, were not attractive enough to encourage potential purchasers to take out a long-term mortgage loan. Even such an incentive as amended Recommendation S, which limited loans with LtV ratio at the level of 100% after January 1, 2014, did not work out.



The third quarter of 2013 in terms of results of both volume (45.8 thousand of new loans) and value (PLN 9.5 billion) of newly granted loans, was already the second period recording the increase of both indicators. Unfortunately, even sustaining such speed of growth - on the level of c.a. 4% - in the following fourth quarter of 2013, does not change the fact that the most probable results of the year 2013 will turn out to be lower than those achieved in the worst as far as till now, the after-the-crisis year 2009.



It is a great pleasure to share some good news with you for the first time since last five quarters. In fact, previous quarter’s mortgage results were the weakest for four years, both in terms of volume (41.6 thousand of new loans) and value (PLN 8.0 billion). Fortunately, last quarter’s results turned out to be better than Q1 2013 and also than Q4 2012.



As predicted, in Q1 2013 both number and value of newly granted mortgage loans decreased, respectively by 12.46% and 9.34%, comparing to Q4 2012 results. Termination of ‘Family on Its Own’ Programme and difficult economic situation resulted in the weakest mortgage results since 2009. In addition, after several months of downward trend, the average transaction prices of financed housing units slightly increased.



Last quarter of previous year brought the significant decrease in both volume and value of new housing loans – respectively by 6.25% and 11.76%. Even the record-breaking results of „Family on Its Own” Programme did not improve the whole sector’s performance. Value of housing loans granted in 2012 was 20% lower than in 2011, which was the effect of lower by 15% number of granted loans and considerable diminution of the average value of a loan.



Third quarter of 2012 was the subsequent quarter of stagnation. Number and value of new loans were similar to previous quarter’s results, however comparing to the results of third quarter of the previous year, the significant drop was noted. Every two out of ten new loans were granted under the “Family on Its Own” Programme. PLN loans constituted over 97% of total value of new loans portfolio. During last quarter, transaction prices in major Polish cities diminished – the decrease equalled from 1 up to nearly 5%, comparing to second quarter’s results.



Lending results for Q2 2012, both in terms of volume (49 620) and value of granted loans (PLN 10.044 Mio) are very serious signals alarming turbulences on housing finance market. It was the first time since several years, when second quarter results turned out to be worse than results obtained at the beginning of the year. Such situation negate the regularity observed during few recent years, when results for second quarter were even 20-30% higher than those for first quarter. This time it is not as we might have expected.



In first quarter of 2012, a decrease both in volume and value of newly granted loans was noted – respectively by 5.96% and 5.46%. In new loans currency structure, the share of loans granted in PLN grew up to the level of almost 85% share in total portfolio. The only mortgage lending indicator that reached its maximum was the average value of a housing loan, which exceeded the level of PLN 209 000.



Mortgage lending figures noted in last quarter of 2011 were significantly lower, both in terms of volume and value (respectively by 13.02% and 15.54%). However, the result of the whole year turned out to be slightly better than of the results of 2010. Currency structure of the new loan portfolio confirms the dominant share of PLN loans (up to the level of 78.58% in 2011). Within the denominated loans, volume of CHF loans had constantly decreased, contrariwise to EUR loans.



Mortgage lending figures as for third quarter of 2011, both in terms of volume (59 571) and value (PLN 12.8 bn), confirm the decrease of over 4%, comparing to the records of the previous quarter. Basing on the current results, slightly weaker than expected, it is hard to anticipate whether banks and potential borrowers will try to avail the time before the full version of Recommendation S becomes binding and decide to take the postponed housing loan decisions.



In second quarter of 2011, volume and value of granted mortgage loans increased in comparison to previous quarter’s results, however it slightly diminished in relations to the relevant period of the year 2010. Housing units supply increased, what influenced the decreased level of average prices in the greatest Polish cities. Borrowers tried to take advantage of the last possible chance for a loan under the governmental „Family on Its Own” programme. Banks’ decisions on margins cuts also supported the increasing mortgage lending figures.



'In first quarter of 2011, the slight increase in volume and value of granted loans were noted, comparing to the results of fourth quarter of 2010. However, the increase in both volume and value was pretty significant, when comparing to the results of first quarter of previous year.' – informed Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz, President of Polish Banks Association during the presentation of the Report on press conference. What’s interesting – currency loans disappear from banks’ offer – 80% of the whole portfolio of newly granted loans were PLN loans.

contact:
Agnieszka Pilcicka
Senior Real Estate Market Analyst

phone: +48 22 463 47 56
agnieszka.pilcicka@amron.pl


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